□作者: 叶 泉志
[1]
根据CBET 944报道，日本国立天文台的科学家Sato和Watanabe公布了他们关于哈雷彗星尘埃尾的计算结果。这个成果基于2006年猎户座流星雨的爆发，计算机模拟显示哈雷彗星在公元前836年的喷发物将于2007年5月6.6日(北京时间6日22时左右)与地球相遇，最小距离为0.0001AU(约1.5万公里)。由于这个喷发物年龄太大，活动持续时间可能较长。详细数据参见:
Eta Aquarids 2007
by Mikiya Sato
I calculated dust trails of Eta-Aquarids in 2007.
The Earth will encounter the dust trail ejected from 1P/Halley in -835 (BC 836).
Especially, two parts of a dust trail will approach on May 6, the peak of meteor shower is expected to observed.
Main data is summarized to the following table and figure.
Table 1 Data of main dust trails of Eta Aquarids in 2007
Ejection
Year |
Date(UT) |
Time |
LS(2000) |
Delta-r
(AU) |
Ejected
Velocity
(m/s) |
Delta-a
(AU) |
fM |
Alp.
(deg.) |
Del.
(deg.) |
Vg
(km/s) |
Notice |
| -835 |
2007/05/05.88 |
21:06 |
44.892 |
+0.0092 |
-20.04 |
-0.739 |
0.0083 |
337.28 |
-1.14 |
65.70 |
|
| -835 |
2007/05/05.89 |
21:18 |
44.901 |
+0.0090 |
-20.04 |
-0.739 |
0.0067 |
337.28 |
-1.14 |
65.70 |
|
| -835 |
2007/05/06.56 |
13:28 |
45.553 |
+0.00068 |
-20.29 |
-0.747 |
0.018 |
337.72 |
-0.91 |
65.93 |
Careful
|
| -835 |
2007/05/06.62 |
14:57 |
45.613 |
-0.00010 |
-20.26 |
-0.747 |
0.046 |
337.76 |
-0.89 |
65.95 |
Careful
|
| -835 |
2007/05/07.47 |
11:13 |
46.430 |
-0.011 |
-20.62 |
-0.759 |
0.082 |
338.33 |
-0.56 |
66.24 |
|
| -835 |
2007/05/07.47 |
11:16 |
46.432 |
-0.011 |
-20.62 |
-0.759 |
0.062 |
338.33 |
-0.56 |
66.24 |
|
| -835 |
2007/05/07.48 |
11:24 |
46.437 |
-0.0099 |
-20.21 |
-0.745 |
0.028 |
338.32 |
-0.58 |
66.22 |
|
| -835 |
2007/05/07.59 |
14:07 |
46.547 |
-0.011 |
-19.99 |
-0.737 |
0.0080 |
338.40 |
-0.53 |
66.26 |
|
| -835 |
2007/05/07.66 |
15:50 |
46.616 |
-0.014 |
-20.29 |
-0.748 |
0.011 |
338.46 |
-0.51 |
66.32 |
|
| -835 |
2007/05/07.69 |
16:33 |
46.645 |
-0.015 |
-20.49 |
-0.754 |
0.026 |
338.48 |
-0.48 |
66.34 |
|
* fM > 0.005, |Delta-r| < 0.02 AU.
Fig. 1 Distributions of the dust trails of Eta Aquarids in 2007
* Colored ovals : fM > 0.01
Expected peak time is between 13:30 and 15:00 on May 6.
However, the trails were very old, it is guessed that the peak is not sharp.
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